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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest shock.

But the latest field is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners fading and longtime also-rans rising together. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

This is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

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