A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
