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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones near outlying Japanese territory as China escalates strains over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the island over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.